A Win on Sunday Night Football Would Be Among the Best This Team Has Had

Don't let the record of Kansas City fool you though...

The Houston Texans can further solidify their playoff chances and make it nearly impossible for the Kansas City Chiefs to secure a playoff spot.

Kansas City’s playoff chances fall to just 11% if they lose, according to The Athletic’s playoff prediction model. Houston’s chances jump to 85% with a win.

The dirt is in the shovel. The Texans need to toss it onto the Chiefs.

The Chiefs, especially quarterback Patrick Mahomes, aren’t easy to keep down. They’re like the bad guy in a horror movie; they keep coming.

Ryans and his Texans haven’t had great results on the road. Their two best road wins were in 2023 when the Texans beat the Bengals in Cincinnati and the Colts in Indianapolis. Last year, the Texans lost twice in Kansas City.

Don’t let the record, 6-6, or the place in the AFC playoff picture, 10th, fool you. Andy Reid and his Chiefs are still scary. They’re also desperate.

Houston’s offense isn’t settled. There were things to like about the performance last week, but this week is a different animal.

Steve Spagnuolo is one of the best defensive coordinators in football.

“Coach ‘Spags’ has done a great job his entire career of having some of the best defenses in the league,” DeMeco Ryans said this week. “What he does, he really stresses offenses with his blitz package. I think that everybody’s aware of that. He does a good job of bringing the pressure, the guys do a great job of executing it. It could be anyone.

“Corner[backs], nickels, [line]backers, he does a good job of mixing it up. So, you can’t just watch it and say, ‘I know who’s blitzing all the time.’ You really have to trust your rules. You really have to be aware, and the receivers, tight ends, everybody has to be on the same page.”

The Texans have experienced some recent success against pressure. Blitzes are getting picked up. Sacks are being limited. This offensive line has found its level, it would seem.

“Our offensive line is definitely playing physical,” Ryans said. “You see guys playing together, they’re playing connected on the double teams. They’re finishing well, so they’re doing a really good job. It’s the second week that we had that same offensive line in, so I’m excited to see them go back for another week and continue to grow, continue to get better. So, they’re doing a great job, just got to keep it going.”

Nick Caley needs to avoid some of his trademark hiccups as he’s pitted against Spagnuolo. No predictable runs. Don’t ignore Nico Collins. Be better at the end of the first half.

Quarterback C.J. Stroud had two of his best drives of the 2024 season in Kansas City. He played well last week against the Colts. There’s a lot to build on from that game with the offense. Stroud will need to have some of his best to score enough to beat Mahomes.

“Patrick is still Patrick,” Ryans chucked. “Let’s call him Houdini. He finds a way to make plays all over the field. That’s why this team has always been a threat. That’s why their games are always close because of Patrick and his capabilities of extending plays, and not just to run plays, not to run the football, but the way he extends plays, the way he finds his guys down the field, it’s unique. There’s not many guys in the league that can do it how Patrick does it. That’s why he’s a special player. The guys he played with, they know where he’s looking. They know what to look for, so they’re connected.”

Rashee Rice has been excellent. Travis Kelce looks more spry than last year. Kareem Hunt has had some decent moments on the ground.

This is one of the final things this defense can do to improve its perception. They’re already perceived as the best defense. If they add more cement to that, the Texans will be in a great spot.

Houston needs a little more from their offense. The defense is firing on all cylinders. They’ve learned to win close games. They won a somewhat tough road matchup last week. Add tonight’s Sunday Night Football to the resume, and the Texans might just be true contenders in the AFC.

One Player to Watch

Kansas City Chiefs offensive tackle Wanya Morris is the player to watch. The Chiefs will likely be without Jawaan Taylor at right tackle. Rookie left tackle Josh Simmons is on injured reserve. Morris is likely to be pressed into duty. He played so poorly in a previous season that the Chiefs benched him and played left guard Joe Thuney at left tackle. Morris struggled in his fill-in work against the Cowboys. Now the ferocious defense of the Texans is his opponent. Patrick Mahomes needs to watch out.

One Matchup to Watch

Rashee Rice when he heads into the slot. The Kansas City Chiefs receiver can heat up like a microwave, and Andy Reid will drop him into the slot to create mismatches. Jalen Pitre has had some nice coverage moments this season, but too many reps against Rice would be an advantage for the Chiefs. While Kamari Lassiter is playing through his foot injury, bumping him inside seems dubious at best. Rice in the slot could be a problem.

One Stat to Watch

It’s really stats, and it is really about the legs of Patrick Mahomes. Kansas City’s quarterback is on pace to shatter all his previous career rushing marks. He’s more effective with his legs than he has ever been in the league. Mahomes can extend plays with the best of them, but he’s taking off a lot these days. It’s necessary. The Chiefs have been shaky in their traditional run game. Mahomes can break a defense’s back if he gets loose to convert a tough first down. His legs must be accounted for in this one.

Score Prediction

The Houston Texans win 20-17. The defense and C.J. Stroud have enough to get it done. Stroud will need to manage the game, play well, and avoid mistakes. He can do that. The defense will probably have to close this one out against Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs have played so many close games, and they never seem to be out of a game. The pass rush gets to Mahomes, the coverage is tight enough, and the Texans earn one of their best road wins since DeMeco Ryans arrived.

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