C.J. Stroud's Upcoming Season Must Create Confidence in Contract
Plus why Nick Caserio's strange offensive line comment doesn't sit right
C.J. Stroud can make himself a tremendous amount of money this season.
I hope it feels like he’s worth every penny.
The price to pay quarterbacks is only going up. Brock Purdy is the latest benefactor.
The San Francisco 49ers paid Purdy a tremendous amount of money. He is now the seventh-highest-paid quarterback by average annual value. His total contract is five years and $265 million.
The Houston Texans will have a chance to negotiate a contract extension with Stroud next offseason. This upcoming season will determine whether Stroud lands among his peers or sets a record.
Purdy’s deal seems like a floor for Stroud. San Francisco’s signal caller has had one great and two decent seasons.
Stroud’s rookie season was great. The second season left something to be desired, as most of his stats were worse. There’s blame to be passed to the offensive line and the now-fired Bobby Slowik, but Stroud had some undesirable moments.
Paying a quarterback to be average can eventually be a near-impossible hurdle to overcome.
If Stroud bounces back, he’s likely to hit the mark most other highly-paid quarterbacks have hit: at least four years and $55 million annually. A great season should have him chasing the Dak Prescott outlier of $60 million annually.
What if Stroud doesn’t have a good season?
A so-so year should create anxiety for the impending deal. Trevor Lawrence signed a massive contract in Jacksonville with the Jaguars, and he’s not shown much to make him feel like he’s worth the mega-deal. That was simply a desperate organization grasping at something solid after quarterback purgatory. They’re locked into mediocrity unless Lawrence takes a big step forward.
The Texans would likely do the same. It was a healthy wait and tremendous luck to land Stroud. Moving on from him isn’t an exciting route. Not paying Stroud creates a potential holdout. Quarterback holdouts sink offseasons and preseason. Handing him something like Purdy’s deal might be a slight savings, but it still eats a tremendous amount of salary cap. Nick Caserio hasn’t exactly signed many team-friendly deals.
An average quarterback on a mega-deal accelerates roster turnover. Paying good players becomes difficult. Paying numerous great players is nearly impossible. It also creates doubt in the decision-making prowess of the front office. If you get a team into this mess, what confidence is there for getting out of the mess?
Stroud must create confidence in his future, making a new deal seem less scary. Replicating his rookie season should be enough. Any improvement on the stats from 2023 would easily make Stroud worth whatever the Texans plan to pay him.
The offense will have more of Stroud’s fingerprints on it. He asked for more input, something where he has more control, and new offensive coordinator Nick Caley gave him what he wanted. There’s depth at wide receiver. Stroud didn’t love the changes on the offensive line initially, but he backed the team’s plan. The defense will help.
Stroud doesn’t have to be the MVP. He doesn’t have to be one of the best quarterbacks. He must consistently showcase skills that make people believe he can eventually be one of the best. We don’t have to see a finished product, but the direction needs to be clear.
The deal is coming no matter what; Stroud must instill confidence that he’s worth it.
An Offensive Offensive Line Statement
“For DeMeco [Ryans] and I, we're not concerned about it. If we’re not concerned about it, you guys certainly shouldn’t be concerned about it either.”
-Houston Texans general manager Nick Caserio