Final Thoughts and Prediction for Texans and Saints
Final Thoughts and Prediction for Texans and Saints
The Texans will try to win their final game before the bye week
The Texans play their second of four consecutive NFC South teams as they host the New Orleans Saints. The Saints at 3-2 are just one win better than the Texans who are 2-3 after losing to the Falcons in Atlanta last week.
Going 3-1 against the NFC South team is certainly on the table with 2-2 in the four-game stretch being the minimum ask. New Orleans is this stretch's most formidable opponent and the best defense the Texans and C.J. Stroud will face.
Here are some final thoughts and a game prediction ahead of the matchup.
Derek Carr Doesn’t Scare Me, Like, At All
This is the worst five-game start to Derek Carr’s career. He has less than 1,000 passing and has thrown just four touchdowns. Almost every season through five games Carr has had at least eight touchdowns.
He is dealing with a shoulder injury and a brand-new offense for him in his first season with the Saints. It doesn’t look easy for him and even with full practice this week you have to wonder what the status of the shoulder is during the game and if he takes some hits.
The offensive line is strange in that they have allowed the sixth-most sacks but haven’t regularly allowed Carr to be pressured. He’s not a danger with his legs, but after seeing what Desmond Ridder did to the Texans he shouldn’t be discounted. Carr can make the same throws Ridder made to beat the Texans.
It should be a slightly different defense though.
The Texans will need to throw plenty at him, but will also be healthier on defense than a week ago. Cornerback Shaq Griffin should make his return to the lineup after missing the game in Atlanta. Tavierre Thomas should return as well helping the slot cornerback position. If the Texans can run the ball a little better too, they will keep the defense from getting gassed. (Editor’s Note: Thomas is a surprising inactive for Sunday’s game.)
The Houston defense boasts three players in the top 20 of ESPN’s Pass Rush Win Rate. Will Anderson is fifth among edge players while Maliek Collins is ranked 10th and Sheldon Rankins is ranked 20th among defensive tackles. Carr has been sacked at least twice in every game and steady veteran Andrus Peat is questionable with a groin injury that popped up during Friday’s practice.
Derek Carr can’t beat this team, but he has a teammate that could dominate the Texans.
Texans "Real Close" to Running the Ball Well But Saints Present Stiff Competition
Alvin Kamara IS Quite Scary
Alvin Kamara scares the crap out of me when it comes to this game. He’s not as physically gifted as last week’s stud running back Bijan Robinson but he’s still very good.
The Saints have leaned on him since he returned from his suspension and I don’t expect that to change. The Texans stuffed the Falcons in the first half, but there was a little more juice in the second half from the Atlanta rushing attack. It wasn’t that the Texans let the Falcons get loose, but when they needed to run it the Falcons could.
New Orleans should look to do the same. Kamara’s ability to make linebackers and defensive backs miss is a huge element of his game game. Houston has been much better the past two weeks at generating tackles for a loss. Will Anderson and Jonathan Greenard have been exceptional in that area and will need to make running tough on Kamara. Watch for when Jerry Hughes and Dylan Horton are in the game, the Texans are extremely vulnerable to the run when they’re playing.
Kamara can open up so much for the Saints. The Texans must do all they can to force Derek Carr to beat them and not let Kamara rule the day.
Prediction
Houston 17
New Orleans 16
The Texans win ugly after almost winning ugly a week ago. Houston has enough on defense to keep the Saints from scoring a ton, I just don’t fear Derek Carr at all. The offense for the Texans must be ready for a tougher matchup than last week. Too many field goals and I will be wrong and the Texans will lose. I trust C.J. Stroud and Bobby Slowik to have a blueprint ready to beat what they will see from the defense of the Saints. Enough is enough on Sunday and the Texans head into the bye week 3-3.
News and Notes
Noah Brown is off the injured reserve on the active roster. He hasn’t played since week one in Baltimore. I expect him to take the majority of the snaps vacated by Tank Dell should Dell be unable to play. (Editor’s Note: Tank Dell is indeed inactive for Sunday’s game.)
Derek Carr has completed the second-most passes of 40+ yards this season.
C.J. Stroud threw Saints wideout Chris Olave 12 of his 13 touchdowns in 2021 when the two were teammates at Ohio State.
Ryan Ramczyk is one of the best right tackles in football. He has the eighth-best Pass Rush Win Rate in football.
The Saints are last in Pass Rush Win Rate as a defense. They’re third in Run Stop Win Rate.
The Texans are set to start the same offensive line for consecutive weeks with Laremy Tunsil at left tackle and Tytus Howard at left guard barring some pregame change.