Texans Bet on Nico Collins With Huge Contract Extension

A big deal for Nico Collins after a breakout season

The Baha Men. Soft Cell. Vanilla Ice. Nico Collins?

The Houston Texas signed Nico Collins to a three-year extension worth up to $75 million hoping he isn’t a one-hit wonder like so many musical acts have been in their careers.

The Texans want to see the hits keep on coming.

Collins was spectacular last year. It took just 12 games in 2023 to equal his combined output of the previous two seasons. He stayed healthy. He ran routes with precision and physicality while becoming the favorite target of the offensive rookie of the year.

Collins was eighth in receiving yards and touchdowns with his 1,300 yards and eight touchdowns. He played like a top receiver and now he’s paid like one. He’s seventh in average annual value and 10th in total value among receivers. Collins’ new deal will expire as Stroud gets expensive and Collins still won’t be 30. His game should age well too meaning this might not be the last deal he signs to stick around in Houston.

It’s risky to pay a player off of one year of success. Collins never got going as a rookie and didn’t look comfortable in year two either. He’s had injuries cost him in past seasons and he missed two games while leaving one early in 2023.

Waiting probably builds some security for the Texans, but it also gets expensive. CeeDee Lamb and Justin Jefferson could get contracts that reset the market for wide receivers before this season starts. If Collins had another great season he easily gets $30 million per year negotiating next offseason. Letting him play out 2024 and franchise-tagging him was an idea but that number is easily over $20 million guaranteed next offseason.

The Texans hope there are more hits from Collins and there are many reasons to believe he will continue to produce.

The situation that allowed him to succeed remains unchanged. C.J. Stroud is still throwing the passes. Bobby Slowik is still calling the plays. In fact, the situation might be even better with the addition of Stefon Diggs and the hope the rushing attack improves.

The statistics might not be as gaudy with more competition for receptions and a bettered rushing attack but he should be efficient and Stroud trusts Collins.

The Texans have most of their offensive playmakers under contract for the next three seasons. Joe Mixon was extended after the Texans traded for him. Dalton Schultz has a new contract to take him through the next three seasons. Tank Dell has three years left on his rookie deal. Collins joins them as a key member of the offense locked in for the next few years.

Now it’s time to see how Collins follows up his breakout. Hopefully, he plays closer to the football equivalent of The Beatles, who have the Billboard Top 100 record with 20 number-one hits, than the one-hit wonders of music’s past.

I’d bet the tune of 2024 sounds pretty good for Collins and the Texans.

A First for Nick Caserio

Nick Caserio’s extension of Nico Collins is the first extension of one of his draft picks. Davis Mills will play out his rookie deal and it seems Brevin Jordan will too. Garret Wallow and Roy Lopez are already on other teams.

The 2022 draft class will be interesting to see develop in 2024 as there are a couple of potential extensions this time next year. Christian Harris with a successful season could be an extension candidate. He’s going into his third season and should pair well with Azeez Al-Shaair this season. While he won’t break the bank off of a good season, the Texans might want some continuity on defense for a few years.

Derek Stingley will have two years, his fourth year and the option for the fifth year, on his deal next offseason. Among top cornerback contracts who were picks in the first round, only Marlon Humphrey got a deal before his fourth season was completed and his extension was done during the fourth season. Trevon Diggs was extended in Dallas after three seasons but was selected in the second round.

There haven’t been many talents for Caserio to worry about extending before this offseason, but now the real money juggling begins. The Texans must remain competitive and deep while players continue to get expensive. The long-term outlook will change year-to-year but Caserio needs to be ready for anything three years from now when Joe Mixon, Tank Dell Dalton Schultz, Laremy Tunsil, Tytus Howard, Shaq Mason, Juice Scruggs, Jarrett Patterson, Derek Stingley, Azez, Al-Shaair, and Ka'imi Fairbairn could all be headed to free agency. While that could be happening C.J. Stroud, Will Anderson, and all the 2024 draft picks could be headed into the final year of their contract.

Honestly, it’s a good problem to have. I would rather a team over the next three seasons have too many good players than not enough. Doesn’t make Caserio’s job easy, but he can’t worry about the offseason in 2027. Not when he’s executed a potentially great deal with one of his earliest roster additions.

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