Texans Face a Familiar Foe As They Need a Win to Keep the Season on the Rails
Houston can't fall any further behind the Jaguars
The Houston Texans can’t afford another loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars. This team is already in a precarious position when considering the playoffs. DeMeco Ryans even said this week he can’t talk about the playoffs until the Texans play better football.
A loss to Jacksonville would make the Jaguars 6-3 and the Texans 3-6, meaning Houston is essentially four games behind their AFC South foes when you include the tiebreaker. A win is essential to keep the season from spiraling out of control.
The Texans will be without five important starters. Davis Mills is in for C.J. Stroud. Ka’imi Fairbairn, the only player who scored last week, is replaced by Matthew Wright, who didn’t have a job this time a week ago.
Jalen Pitre has no clear replacement on the roster. Houston will start two new linemen on the right side of the offensive line with Ed Ingram and Tytus Howard out.
The good news is Jacksonville stacks up less impressively than the San Francisco 49ers did when they came to Houston two weeks ago.
Jacksonville has trouble consistently moving the ball, they’re reliant on the rushing attack, and they’re just okay at protecting their quarterback. The 49ers were better than Jacksonville at all of those things, and Houston handled them. Jacksonville’s pass rush is on par with San Francisco’s, in that it’s been abysmal. The Jaguars have the fewest sacks in the league.
It’s a dig deep game, not unlike two years ago when the Texans went to Tennessee and faced the Titans without Stroud. Let’s see how deep the Texans are when the dust settles in their third AFC South dustup.
One Player to Watch
Parker Washington is the top receiving threat for the Jacksonville Jaguars. Brian Thomas Jr. is out. Jakobi Meyers just arrived this week. Washington is also expected to play in the slot for Jacksonville. The Texans will be without their typical slot defender in Jalen Pitre. This could be the matchup Jacksonville hopes to exploit, helping Trevor Lawrence move the football.
One Matchup to Watch
Josh Hines-Allen against Aireontae Ersery is the matchup to watch. The rookie left tackle had a tough day in Jacksonville. He gets a chance at revenge in this one. There are signs Ersery can make it work at left tackle. It would be a great data point to see him have a better day in his first opportunity to get a second look at an opponent in his NFL career. Hines-Allen is coming off his best game of the season against the Las Vegas Raiders, where he had a sack and a half.
One Stat to Watch
All eyes are on the red zone this week. The Houston Texans have the NFL’s worst red zone offense. Jacksonville is ranked 23rd in the red zone. Houston, despite being the league’s best in points allowed and yards allowed, is ranked just 26th in red zone defense. Jacksonville is just one spot better ranked at 25th. It’s anyone’s game when they start approaching the end zone.
Score Prediction
The Houston Texans win 16-10. I believe they will score a touchdown against the Jaguars. I don’t believe they will look awesome on offense. The faith in this offense is at an all-time low for me since DeMeco Ryans arrived. The team doesn’t play their dynamic rookies. They insist that their offensive line is something that it isn’t. The defense has been excellent in spots like this, so I don’t fear a bunch of Jacksonville production. The defense should carry them home with enough offense to get the win.