The Houston Texans can’t be 0-3 again. I know they made it to the playoffs after a 0-3 start last season, but they can’t expect that to be possible again. Last season started with two road losses and two losses to NFC teams among the first three games.
This year, 0-3 would have the Texans behind the eight ball. They have already played two of their eight home games. All the opponents would be losses in the AFC. Of course, a loss today means a loss in the AFC South. The tiebreakers would be stacking up against the Texans.
It’s easy to avoid that. Beat the Colts.
Indianapolis has played two good teams, but regardless of the opponent, the Colts aren’t a good team. There are signs they’ve given up yards and been terrible just because of their opponents. There’s evidence this defense flat-out stinks.
They’ve allowed over 400 yards after the catch. That is more than both teams who have played three games. Passing against them nets nearly nine yards per pass play. They have the fifth-worst quarterback pressure percentage.
C.J. Stroud has a chance to stay on a roll. Despite the offensive failures last week, Stroud did well. He should be able to attack this defense, even without Nico Collins. Nick Caley will hopefully have more elements from his successful week one calling offense.
You have to score to win, but you can’t lose a shutout.
Forgive the cliché. The defense is still the portion of this team you should depend on each week. The matchup is not daunting. Jonathan Taylor is fantastic, but the Texans have had success against him since DeMeco Ryans arrived. Alec Pierce, the best wideout for Indianapolis, is missing this game. Daniel Jones hasn’t replicated his hot start from last season.
Getting the first win is almost as important as avoiding a deeper 0-3 hole than last year’s.
One Player to Watch
Josh Downs can change the game for the Indianapolis Colts. He is a tough cover from the slot. Downs has excellent separation numbers. If he’s matched up with Reed Blankenship or Jalen Pitre, he could make some big plays. With no outside threats due to injury, the Colts have to find ways to get Downs the ball and hope he makes plays. Tyler Warren, the standout tight end, will be dangerous over the middle too.
One Matchup to Watch
The Houston Texans have a massive opportunity with their slot receiver. Indianapolis Colts nickel Justin Walley has been terrible to start the season. He has allowed a perfect passer rating when targeted. He’s allowed the second-most receiving yards in the league, with 204 yards allowed according to Next Gen Stats. This is a huge opportunity for Jaylin Noel. He had the most snaps in the slot last week. He’s been explosive when the ball has been in his hands.
One Stat to Watch
These two teams have combined for one takeaway in the first two weeks. Jalen Pitre has dropped an interception. So has Kamari Lassiter. Danielle Hunter somehow failed to jostle the ball loose from Joe Burrow last week. Daniel Jones has thrown two interceptions deep in his own territory. Both led to touchdowns. He’s been pretty careful with the ball outside of those mistakes. C.J. Stroud played a clean game last week and hasn’t thrown an interception this season. A turnover, or a few turnovers, could easily decide this game.
Score Prediction
The Houston Texans win 17-10. I don’t believe the Texans will look lost on offense like last week. I don’t believe the Colts are actually the worst defense in the league. The Texans need to convert a couple of red zone opportunities and get Ka’imi Fairbairn to put one through the uprights. The defense wasn’t happy giving up 20 points to the Cincinnati Bengals, so I imagine cutting that in half against the Colts isn’t too crazy. No style points, just get the win.
Kayshon Boutte Interview
Kayshon Boutte was fantastic talking with S&L this week. We dove into his football journey, the trade to Houston, and the anatomy of a big play, among other things.