The Latest Opportunity for the Texans to Take the Next Step Arrives With the Bills

A chance for one of the most significant wins in recent memory

The Buffalo Bills present the latest chance for the Houston Texans to make a statement. Houston has yet to beat a decidedly good team. The Jacksonville Jaguars might be good, but nobody is certain.

The Bills are good. Josh Allen is excellent.

It will be no easy task to get to a winning record for the first time this season.

Davis Mills has done all anyone could ask of a backup quarterback. He won two games, one in grand comeback fashion, while C.J. Stroud has been out with his concussion. Beating this Bills team on a short week would be one of the great quarterback accomplishments in franchise history. It’s certainly the biggest game Mills has started in his pro career.

Mills has done an excellent job of getting Nico Collins the ball. He hasn’t thrown a ton of interceptable passes; those are waning as he starts more games. He doesn’t add to the damage by taking sacks for huge losses. The offensive line looks better because he will get rid of the ball quickly. He will need to do all that against Buffalo to get a win.

It doesn’t need to be spectacular; it just needs to be done.

Of course, Mills isn’t outdueling Allen. The defense for Houston must be exceptional. Allen played one of the worst games of his football career in Houston last season. It might take that to pull off a win. He’s coming off a six-touchdown performance where he erased mistakes with a seemingly unstoppable will to crush the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Ryans and his defense baffled Allen last year. Forced him into passes that headed nowhere. They didn’t let his ability to move out of the pocket break them. They possess most of the tools to attempt those very things again.

If Houston is to pull off the upset, the defense will lead the charge as usual.

A win would allow the Texans to maintain their slim margin for error in their quest for a third straight playoff appearance. It would give Houston a potentially important tiebreaker over a fellow Wild Card contender. It helps that Buffalo is an AFC foe, which is a potential tiebreaker against the Jaguars.

Stroud’s return is on the horizon, and if Mills was able to hand the team back to the starter with a winning record, the Texans will definitely have a chance to go somewhere this season. It will also be a test for Stroud to build on what Mills accomplished in his absence. That, along with wins, is an important aspect of this season as well. Assessing Stroud’s viability as a franchise quarterback is a goal in 2025.

Short weeks usually favor the home team, but they’re not usually facing a red-hot quarterback off a six-touchdown performance with their backup quarterback.

One Player to Watch

Buffalo Bills running back James Cook is a monster. He can catch the ball in addition to his impressive rushing abilities. Cook scored through the air last week against Tampa Bay, marking his only score in the last three games. He takes a backseat to Josh Allen on offense, but he’s a key piece to how the Bills operate. The Texans had great success against Christian McCaffrey; they will need to have similar success against Cook.

One Matchup to Watch

Dion Dawkins is one of the best left tackles in football, and Spencer Brown isn’t bad at right tackle. Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. have their work cut out for them. Josh Allen doesn’t get sacked a lot, but last year, Houston pressured Allen a ton, and it helped make the horrid performance from the Buffalo quarterback. Hunter and Anderson are also good enough athletes that they can limit Allen's rushes before they become backbreaking.

One Stat to Watch

The Buffalo Bills allow fewer passing yards per game than the Texans. It isn’t much, but they’re better. Of course, the Texans can stop the run. The Bills can’t. They’ve allowed 153 yards per game. Last week, Buffalo allowed the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to rush for 202 yards. The week before, the Miami Dolphins rushed for 197 yards. Miami and Tampa Bay are near the Texans in offensive rushing output. The Texans must be able to run the ball well.

Score Prediction

The Buffalo Bills win 20-17. Josh Allen isn’t having another game like last season. He isn’t exactly going to light it up. The Texans have an excellent defense. They should make it hard for Allen and the Bills to get the necessary points. The Texans are far from a guarantee to put up enough to win. The offensive blackhole in the first half against Tennessee was concerning. If Nico Collins and the rushing attack make it work, the Texans steal this one. They likely won’t be Thursday night thieves.

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