The New England Patriots Stand in the Face of History for the Houston Texans
The Texans Can't Run Into the Divisional Wall Again
The Houston Texans can’t run into the same wall again. The franchise has never been past the divisional round of the playoffs. They take their best team ever into a road matchup with the New England Patriots.
Adding to the stakes, the Denver Broncos await the winner. Denver will be without their starting quarterback, Bo Nix. Nix broke his ankle and is out for the season. The winner between the Texans and the Patriots will march into Denver with a great shot to be the AFC representative in the Super Bowl.
If the Texans don’t get past this round, the season will be a disappointment.
The franchise inched closer to new heights last year, but Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs were too much. The long march to this point wasn’t about getting to this game; it was about making franchise history.
Drake Maye and company stand in the way of writing a new chapter in team history.
Reconciling Maye as the opponent is difficult. He is an MVP candidate, but the schedule has been soft. He’s coming off a performance where he gutted out a win, but didn’t look amazing. He isn’t Mahomes. He’s not Lamar Jackson. He might one day be Josh Allen, but he’s not that yet. He’s a second-year breakout with a solid team.
The best defense in football awaits. The performance against a solid defense last week left a lot to be desired by Maye. The Los Angeles Chargers are solid. The Texans are elite. Maye was the fourth-most sacked quarterback this season. His deep-ball success hasn’t come against the likes of Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter. He’s one of the only paths to victory for the Patriots. A great performance from him might be enough.
The other path to victory for New England involves C.J. Stroud.
Stroud had some good moments against the Steelers, but a game filled with mistakes and turnovers might send the Texans home. He’s bounced back after disappointing games. Stroud’s best game ever, the huge performance against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, came after a stinker on the road against the Carolina Panthers. Even this season, the road disappointment against the Seattle Seahawks was followed by an excellent performance against the San Francisco 49ers.
Stroud can’t do too much, but the Texans need him. With Nico Collins out, it elevates the need for Stroud to distribute the ball effectively and play within himself. The defense can’t do it alone. A few scoring drives will be necessary. When the Texans don’t score, they can’t push the defense back out quickly. The rushing attack from Monday’s win would be nice, but again, it doesn’t have to be a huge day. Just effective. Give the offense a chance to put points up.
The usual formula can work, but there’s little room for mistakes.
The offseason doesn’t feel like it's arriving soon. The Texans need to break through where previous Houston teams have failed.
One Player to Watch
New England Patriots running back TreVeyon Henderson is the player to watch. The rookie running back has come on strong to end the season. He has the dynamic playmaking that has had some successful moments against this Texans defense. Think about the James Cook and Ashton Jeanty runs from earlier this season. Henderson is capable of that and more. The Patriots have thrown him the ball at times, so the Texans need to be prepared for that as well.
One Matchup to Watch
The defensive tackles of the New England Patriots against the interior offensive line of the Texans is the matchup to watch. The Patriots have had plenty of good games from Milton Williams and Christian Barmore. If those two get working against the Texans, Houston will have a hard time running the ball. They can create moments where the pocket gets messy, and the Patriots clean things up with their edge rushers. The Texans haven’t had great success against good defensive tackle play this season.
One Stat to Watch
It’s really one player’s stats to watch in this one. Drake Maye gets pressured a lot. The offensive line hasn’t protected him well. He was the fourth-most-sacked quarterback this season. The Los Angeles Chargers got to him last week and even knocked the ball out a couple of times. Maye, also, has made some big plays against pressure. Pick a stat for under pressure, Maye has been good. He has a high quarterback rating against pressure. He has a high completion percentage against pressure. He scrambles well against pressure. It won’t be easy to slow him down.
Score Prediction
The Houston Texans win 24-21. I feel like both teams will have stretches where they will look to be in control. The Texans have been on their heels on defense before, but they possess the overall ability to fight back. The offense will give Houston enough, and Ka’imi Faibairn in elements he despises, will be the final difference. It feels very much like it is time for the Texans. They get it done and head to Denver.