The Texans Get to Wrap Wild Card Weekend on Monday Night Football
A win would mean a trip to play the Patriots
The Houston Texans finish the opening round of the NFL playoffs with a game in Pittsburgh against the Steelers. The road team has won three of the five games played in the round. Last year, just one road team won in the Wild Card round. The same as the year before. It was the first year this format of the playoffs was played the last time this many road teams won in this round.
The trip to Pittsburgh will be one of the more challenging road environments. It is up there with the road game in Kansas City against the Chiefs and the Monday Night affair Houston had with the Seattle Seahawks. It will be the second-coldest game this season for the Texans behind only Kansas City, with expected temperatures in the low 30s. The Texans are, of course, winless on the road in the playoffs all-time. That has to change tonight.
A win means Houston heads to the Northeast to play the New England Patriots. A loss creates a swirl of questions for the offseason.
It isn’t as simple as this will sound, but it boils down to this for the Texans: if C.J. Stroud is bad, they go home. If C.J. Stroud is good, they’ll have a chance to beat anyone. If C.J. Stroud is great, they win the Super Bowl.
The playoff journey starts tonight.
One Player to Watch
Houston Texans linebacker Henry To’oTo’o is the player to watch in this one. A few weeks ago, the Las Vegas Raiders took advantage of To’oTo’o through the air and on the ground. He didn’t tackle well. He got caught in a precarious coverage situation. To’oTo’o bounced back when Azeez Al-Shaair returned to the field against the Los Angeles Chargers. It was one of his best games. To’oTo’o is important in this game because Pittsburgh throws short, especially to the running backs, and he will need to be sure-footed in his approach and tackles.
One Matchup to Watch
The matchup to watch is Nico Collins against the cornerbacks of the Steelers. Joey Porter Jr. and James Pierre have had some nice moments, even though the Steelers rank 29th in passing yards allowed. Collins is the ‘gotta have it’ player for C.J. Stroud. When the Texans need something, they can rely on Collins. Porter and Pierre will need to be ready in critical moments, and any mistakes they make likely won’t get cleaned up by the safeties.
One Stat to Watch
Turnover differential is the stat to watch in this one. The Steelers and the Texans finished near the top in turnover differential. The Texans were second in the NFL with +17, and the Steelers were fourth with +12. Aaron Rodgers hasn’t thrown an interception since early November, and his last turnover was a fumble in late November in a blowout. C.J. Stroud has had some hiccups since his return to the starting lineup, but he’s done a good job most of the year of protecting the ball. Both defenses hunt turnovers. It will be interesting to see if the offenses take advantage if there is a giveaway by the other team.
Score Prediction
The Houston Texans win 20-13. I don’t believe the Pittsburgh Steelers are scoring a lot of points. The Texans will need to have enough to get this done and rely on their defense to do the rest. That’s the formula. Pittsburgh has some decent skill position players, but not enough to constantly take advantage of the Texans. Houston needs to exploit the poor pass defense and score enough to win. Even if it means kicking a couple of times.
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