The Houston Texans have 10 games left in their season. Those 10 games represent a chance to make something of this, up to this point, disappointing 2026 season. The margin for error is nonexistent. The Texans can’t lose more than two games if they want to keep playoff hopes alive.
Regardless of the results, the Texans need to see how solid their foundation is as a franchise. C.J. Stroud, the offensive operation, and DeMeco Ryans’ defense are all under the microscope regardless of the results.
Stroud has been excellent. Seven games, however, don’t make a season. A criticism I have often lobbed at Stroud is how he handles what he is in control of at quarterback. The previous two seasons, independent of the situation, he came up short. This year he’s been awesome. If Stroud keeps it up, the Texans will happily pay him one of the largest contracts in NFL history. He will have earned it, too. The one element I feel that might unfortunately remain is that there is even more to Stroud if the other 10 guys on offense, and his coordinator, are better.
The offense around Stroud is under evaluation. Offensive coordinator Nick Caley has done little in his 26 games at the helm of the offense to cement his spot at offensive coordinator. The awful showing in the game against the New York Giants ruined momentum he had built. The inconsistency is maddening. Caley would have to be excellent to avoid considering cleaning out the offensive staff.
Evaluating the offensive players is important. How much can this team rely on Marvin Harrison Jr.? He’s here to stay for next year after the expensive trade. Tank Dell and Xavier Hutchinson will have plenty of opportunities to shine in contract years. Woody Marks has flashed as a trusted running back. The oft-criticized offensive line has to show something to avoid more offseason reconstruction. Finding out what else Stroud might need to maximize the expensive portion of his career is necessary.
Then there is the disappointing defense. Ryans is the piece that requires the most scrutiny. This was supposed to be one of the league’s best defenses. They returned almost everyone and added what were supposed to be upgrades. It’s been one of the biggest disappointments in the NFL. It feels like the opponents have found out Ryans and his defense. Can he showcase that he has an approach that’s better than stewarding elite talent? Will his elite talent, which almost all of it is under contract for next season, create faith that the direction they committed to is the correct one? Initially, it would be nice to just see them stop an offense playing poorly.
Wins and losses will define this season, but where the organization is as a whole will be important to track as the Texans get started after their bye week.
The Jumbo Problem the Texans Have on Offense
The Houston Texans must stop running their jumbo tight end package. It doesn’t work. Nick Caley and his offense run the jumbo package twice as much as the team closest to them. It’s become incredibly predictable, allowing the defense to pounce on the rushing attack. It also works against the construction of the roster.
The Texans invested in tight end and wide receiver. Then they put in an offensive lineman they jump through hoops to keep off the field to block. It isn’t a consistently effective approach to offense.
DeMeco Ryans did a bad job explaining it. He said the hope is to run the ball at will in the jumbo package, but they have become too predictable. He advocated for passing the ball out of the formation the team puts on the field to impose their will in the run game.
The offensive coordinator did little to support his jumbo approach when asked about it this week.
“There are certain times from a grouping standpoint what we’re trying to do,” Caley said, “how we’re going to combat different front structures and what advantages we feel it may or may not give us from week to week. It ties into a bunch of different things, like relative to the run game, protections, we can do a lot of different things out of it. We’ve used it a decent amount.”
The advantages aren’t clear. The success isn’t there. Burn that part of the playbook and lean into situations and players that can help you move the football and win.
One Player to Watch
Justin Herbert has been terrible. He’s playing the worst football of his career. He hasn’t had a multi-touchdown game this season. Herbert has three multi-interception games this season. This isn’t complicated. If he looks lost and incompetent, even the Texans can stop him. If he snaps into what he was expected to be this season, he can move the ball. Whichever Herbert shows up will dictate how the Chargers go in this one.
One Matchup to Watch
How will the Los Angeles Chargers approach Nico Collins? The Houston Texans didn’t handle the extra attention on Collins well. It totally took him out of the game, to the tune of one of the worst games of Collins’ career. Collins is the type of player who should never be taken out of a game. It will be interesting to see if the New York Giants put the blueprint out to throw the Texans for a loop.
One Stat to Watch
Nobody has been more generous than the Los Angeles Chargers. They have the most giveaways in the league. The Houston Texans have the second fewest takeaways in football. It’s the stoppable force against the moveable object, if you will. Takeaways were a hallmark of the Texans’ defense last season. While I won’t expect anything positive in this game that occurs to be carried over, a couple of takeaways and scoring off of them will make the day much easier.
Score Prediction
The Houston Texans win 27-13. The Los Angeles Chargers don’t have enough on offense. Justin Herbert has been horrible this season. They might finally score a touchdown against this Texans defense, but they’ll likely have to lean on the kicker and hope the Texans get in their own way. This game is only close if the Texans get in their own way and let the Chargers hang around. Ultimately, get the win. No worry about style points here.