Broncos at Texans: Score Prediction and Final Thoughts
Every game has playoff implications for the Texans from here on out
There are a few similarities between the Texans and the Broncos in the way the two teams are built. Each team has an offensive line that has been invested in heavily but is still underperforming. The Broncos have trouble protecting Russell Wilson and Denver has allowed more sacks than the Texans. The ability to get the rushing attack going has been inconsistent similar to the Texans.
The defense is dependent on some young drafted players and some key free agents as well. Denver jettisoned some of their veterans parting ways with Frank Clark and Randy Gregory earlier in the season in favor of some younger players. They’ve had good production from players like Nik Bonitto (seven sacks), Jonathon Cooper (five and a half sacks), and Baron Browning (three sacks in the past five games) who are all recent draft picks. The Texans have had better luck with their veterans than Denver, but still use plenty of their young players in the front seven.
Finally, the strength of the defense is the secondary. The Texans will have the secondary they’d hoped for all year with Jimmie Ward’s return from injury. The Broncos have one of football’s best cornerbacks in Pat Surtain. Justin Simmons is one of the most dynamic safeties in football and missed the game against the Texans last year. The defense for the Broncos is all about forcing the opposing offense to deal with those two players. Surtain will even follow wide receivers so that will be interesting to see if they focus on one pass catcher from the Texans.
With the similarities between these two, and the messy AFC playoff picture, whichever team has their mirror image look better will have a leg up on their playoff chase.
Score Prediction
The Texans get the win 23-19. I don’t believe Denver will move the ball well enough to score a lot on the Texans. Houston has had some iffy defensive moments, but I don’t see the Broncos running up a big number. I believe there are some mistakes in there from the Broncos offense too. The Texans don’t have an easy road on offense. If they can run the ball well, it should help make the passing offense more effective. I respect what Denver has put together in the secondary, but when the Texans click on offense they aren’t throwing a lot of interceptable passes or tight window passes. It’s open windows and off to the races. I do believe there will be a moment when the Texans leave Matt Ammendola on the bench in favor of the offense.
Stats that Matter…Maybe
The Broncos are 50% on red zone touchdown percentage, but over their last three, they are just 43%.
Over the past three games, the Broncos are one of the best teams in the NFL in defense on third downs. They’re allowing just 31% to opponents. The Texans are 25th over the last three games on third-down defense.
The Broncos have forced 15 turnovers in the past four games. In those 15 turnovers, there are five interceptions with the rest being fumbles recovered. Denver has forced a total of 15 fumbles in the past four games.
All four of those teams are in the top eight of giveaways. The Texans have the fifth-fewest giveaways.
Denver is 28th in penalties per game which is the second-worst in the AFC.
During their winning streak, the Broncos have seen Russell Wilson average 179 yards passing per game. He’s thrown eight touchdowns and zero interceptions in that stretch. He’s completing over 71% of his passes and has been sacked 14 times in the five games.
The ten fumble recoveries is a telling statistic. I believe recovering fumbles is largely luck based. The Broncos can’t rely on that as a cornerstone of their defense. I believe the Texans RIDE the Broncos to an easy win today.